# Martingale Method on Binary Options: Latest Money ...

• Martingale Method on Binary Options: Latest Money ...
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##### Binary Options & Profitable Win Rate

Hello there /forex! I actually fired this question off in /math and was met with crickets there. My question has to do with the math behind a sub-martingale betting strategy for Binary Options. Here's what I was thinking...
Basically I want to see if there is a mathematical way to compare two betting styles and the % win necessary to be profitable trading binary options.
I am not quite sure even of how you would set this up mathematically to solve your expected break-even point, after tinkering in excel, I found the number to be somewhere close to a 58.7% win rate on straightforward betting (with a 70% payout). Here's where it gets more cumbersome. If you were to approach the problem with a martingale style betting system, (whereby you double up your bets with each consecutive loss) would it have any impact on the % break even win rate? Lets assume the max consecutive losses I am willing to make is 4, is it more likely that I will reach a point where I have won all the money back to exceed my max loss (4 losses in a row = \$75 max draw vs. probability of winning enough bets to overcome \$75) and is the win rate to get there less than that of straightforward betting? For an example...
• B1: \$5, net win payout:\$3.5, max loss:\$5
• B2: \$10, net win payout:\$2, max loss:\$15
• B3: \$20, net win payout:\$4, max loss:\$35
• B4: \$40, net win payout:\$8, max loss:\$75
So based on probability, what is the necessary win rate to have a sub martingale (winning bias over my max loss of \$75)...and is it lower than the win rate of straightforward betting? Sorry for not having a clue on how to calculate this...hopefully this has perked some interest and someone is up for the challenge. Thanks and sorry for the poorly explained example, I can try to clarify what I mean if its unclear.
TL:DR Does the necessary win rate to be profitable on a fixed payout system change with a martingale strategy?

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